Break-even is not the whole story
If the new payment is $200 lower and closing costs are $6,000, a simple break-even is 30 months. If you sell in year two, you did not recoup the costs. If the new loan is longer than the remaining term, total interest can rise even when the payment falls.
The page uses amortizing math on both loans. It does not price points, cash-out tax treatment, or a change from ARM to fixed beyond the rates you type.